01 The Big Takeaway
Kenya is reallocating capital at 8.75%
The Central Bank of Kenya has now held the policy rate at 8.75 percent for a third consecutive meeting, after February’s cut from 9.0 percent. The front end of the government curve has fused to that number: the 91-day Treasury bill was about 8.77 percent in early September, August inflation printed 6.6 percent, and the next Monetary Policy Committee sits only in October. This is no longer an easing story. It is a distribution story — who receives the cash that no longer needs to sit in double-digit paper.
That cash is already moving. The 3 September Treasury-bill auction drew Sh56.3 billion against Sh28 billion on offer, a 200.9 percent subscription, even as 91-day and 182-day yields eased. Reopened 15-year and 30-year bonds on 2 September were 113.7 percent subscribed. In the same week the NSE All Share Index rose 3.67 percent to 3 September, with the NSE 25 and NSE 20 up 4.40 and 4.51 percent. KenGen closed Friday at Sh12.55 after an intraday high of Sh13.10 on Thursday. Banks and energy names are taking the bid that short rates can no longer justify.
The private market is running the same tape. DealMakers AFRICA put Kenya at the top of continental mergers and acquisitions by value in the first half of 2026, at $1.44 billion across 25 deals. Nearly 60 percent of that print is Nedbank’s $855 million bid for 66 percent of NCBA Group — now with a Central Bank of Kenya green light — with Absa Group’s $239 million top-up of Absa Kenya as the second pillar. Kenya is not waiting for the next cut. It is being recapitalised, and re-owned, at the rate the CBK has chosen to defend.
02 Market Signals
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01
Policy
CBK held the CBR at 8.75% on 11 August — the third consecutive hold after February’s 25bp cut. August inflation was 6.6%. Average commercial-bank lending sat at 14.39% in July. Next MPC: October.
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02
Equities
NASI +3.67% in the week to 3 September; NSE 25 +4.40%; NSE 20 +4.51%. KenGen at Sh12.55 on Friday despite a marginal decline in annual earnings. Applications for the KenGen CEO and four other top jobs close 8 September.
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03
FX & bonds
3 September T-bill: Sh56.3bn of bids versus Sh28bn offered (200.9%). 2 September reopened 15-year and 30-year bonds: Sh68.2bn versus Sh60bn (113.7%). The 91-day bill at about 8.77% sits two basis points above the policy rate. The shilling remains the CBK’s imported-inflation backstop.
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04
East Africa
IFAD and Equity Group launched ARCAFIM in Kigali on 4 September: a $200 million, 12-year climate-adaptation facility for Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. $180 million is lending capital, $20 million technical assistance; Equity is matching $90 million from its own book.
03 Capital & Deals
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M&A · Banks
Nedbank’s $855m NCBA bid now has a CBK green light
South Africa’s Nedbank is buying 66% of NCBA Group. The transaction is the anchor of Kenya’s H1 2026 M&A print and has Central Bank of Kenya approval. Absa Group separately moved to lift its Absa Kenya stake by up to 16.5% (895,989,600 shares) for $239 million.
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Blended · EAC
Equity and IFAD put $200m to work for East African farmers
ARCAFIM, launched at the Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, is built as a revolving lending line — $90 million of Equity’s balance sheet matching concessional capital one-for-one, with Green Climate Fund catalytic money in the stack. Target: about 260,000 smallholders and 500 rural MSMEs; at least half women.
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VC · Nairobi
Sevi and Flowt raise as SME credit stays a Nairobi thesis
Fintech Sevi took an undisclosed cheque from Oxano Capital on 2 September to scale stock financing and push beyond Kenya. The same week, Flowt closed a pre-seed from Argidius Foundation, Impacc and Delta40 Fund I to turn messy SME books into lender-ready data for climate-smart firms.
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PE · Uganda
DOB Equity backs Irrisol’s solar water mini-grids
The Dutch family investor did not disclose the size. Irrisol will use the capital to thicken its Rwenzori network and move into other parts of Uganda — household taps, schools and productive water use, billed on mobile money.
04 The Data Point
H1 2026 disclosed M&A
$1.44bn
Kenya wrote fewer tickets than Nigeria — and a larger cheque than Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa combined.
DealMakers AFRICA counted 25 Kenyan deals in the first half against Nigeria’s 39. Value went the other way: Nigeria $105.8 million, Egypt $140.7 million, South Africa $571.2 million. Kenya’s print is what a market looks like when two bank transactions ($855 million + $239 million) set the continental ranking.
Source: DealMakers AFRICA via The Star, 4 September 2026